Oscar Best Picture Reviews, Part IV, and Oscar Predictions

● Yesterday I wrote that I wasn't expecting to like "The Kids Are All Right." I was wrong. Now, I'm not ecstatic about it and don't plan to buy it on Blu-ray or anything, but it was a nice little piece with a new take on the old romance and "other man/woman" themes.

At this point in Nic (Annette Bening) and Jules' (Julianne Moore) same-sex marriage, things have died down a bit. They almost inexplicably watch male-male pornography for arousal (well, it is explained that they don't like watching lesbian pornography because its stars' attachment is inauthentic. So, we're put off the notion that these women are together because they hate the phallus; they're together for love.

And then one day, one of the kids, Laser (Josh Hutcherson), decides that he wants to meet his --- and his sister Joni's (Mia Wasikowska, who played the title character in last year's "Alice in Wonderland") --- sperm donor biological father, Paul (Mark Ruffalo). This precipitates a major transition in each person's life.

Nic, the clinical control-freak must learn that control isn't enough to sustain a family or relationship; Jules, a career-drifter, must find something to do now that the kids are getting older; Joni is a repressed (not just sexually) 18-year-old who's heading to college soon; Laser (seriously, who chose this name?) is struggling to find male role models as he comes of age.

After snorting drugs with his "Jackass"-type friend, Clay, then being asked to re-evaluate what he's getting out of the relationship with this friend, Laser asks newly-18-year-old Joni to find out whether they can meet their father. Paul is a fairly successful restaurateur / organic farmer, and before getting this call from the sperm bank, apparently is happy with a life of casual sex with women who work for him. After he meets Laser and Joni, and subsequently hires Jules to redesign his backyard to kick-start her new business, Paul undergoes a progression toward acceptance of this instant family being dropped into his life. When he starts having a sexual relationship with Jules and it is discovered, he seems to think he can slink right in. Is it just me or did it just seem wrong that I didn't feel too badly when Jules and Paul started with mutual kissing and then several quite graphic sex scenes? If Jules were cheating in a heterosexual marriage, it would not get the kind of audience reaction it did, and the ending as it stands would not sit well. Is cheating within a same-sex marriage somehow less morally wrong? With no substantial classic Hollywood-morality-tale repercussions for Jules besides an aching back from a few weeks sleeping on the couch, it would seem so. Like many heterosexual couples who "stay together for the kids" is it enough from this relationship that "the kids are all right"? Is it enough of a reason for them to stay married because they're "too old" as Laser's closing lines suggest?

We're not shown the resolutions to the transitions. Jules and Nic have to re-build their relationship; Mia had kissed an equally-repressed male friend and rode on Paul's motorcycle (breaking one of Nic's major rules); Laser parted ways with his jackass of a friend, who wanted to urinate on a stray dog (it seems he picked up a sense of "this isn't a good idea" from Paul), but he still doesn't really have a male role model.

Paul created a major obstacle for the moms. But for Laser and Joni, it seems like he planted a seed (this time, a figurative one) that will help them come through their transitions. Maybe it was enough. And in that sense, the kids are all right. The grown-ups, on the other hand....

Mark Ruffalo was enjoyable in his role as Paul. There's a wonderful play on the way he grows his vegetables organically, versus his role in the artificial creation of the kids. He realized that the casual sex lifestyle wasn't enough for him, but his attempt to be a family man by trying to cut into this situation was something that put them all in straits. As Nic delivers one of the more poignant lines of the film, Paul needs to start his own family, not invade one that he was an anonymous part of 18 and 15 years before.

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With the Academy Awards ceremony tonight, I'll posit my own list of who should win and who will win in the major categories. Many years, I didn't watch at all, or flipped to it between commercials of whatever other show I was watching. This exercise of watching the Best Picture nominees and writing reviews has made the anticipation to watch tonight somewhat increased, even with my general disdain for awards shows.

Best Picture
     Which should win: "True Grit"
     Which will win: "The King's Speech"

Best Actor
     Who should win: Jeff Bridges, "True Grit
     Who will win: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

Best Actress
     Who should win: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
     Who will win: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"

Best Supporting Actor
     Who should win: John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"
     Who will win: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

Best Supporting Actress
     Who should win: Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"
     Who will win: Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"

Best Director
     Who should win: Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, "True Grit"
     Who will win: David Fincher, "The Social Network"

Best Original Screenplay
     Who should win: Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg, "The Kids Are All Right"
     Who will win: Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg, "The Kids Are All Right"

Best Adapted Screenplay
     Who should win: Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, "True Grit"
     Who will win: Aaron Sorkin, "The Social Network"

Best Animated Feature
     Which should win, "The Illusionist"
     Which will win, "Toy Story 3"

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